نموذج رياضى للتنبؤ بإيراد نهر النيل السنوي عند المواقع الرئيسية

عثمان التوم حمد, سامي عثمان التوم

Abstract


As the needs of riparian countries for irrigation, hydropower generation, flood and drought mitigation and climate change increased over time. It became necessary to optimize the utilization of the Nile. Therefore, it was inevitable to predict early Nile inflows at the inlets of these facilities. This paper presents a mathematical model for predicting the Nile inflows at the main stations up to the High Aswan Dam based on forecasting the flows when it enters Sudan.  It was possible to use the model to review the transmission losses of the natural flow of the Nile. It was also possible to review, compare and evaluate the measurement of Nile flows at the main stations up to the High Aswan Dam. The model was calibrated for the period 1915 - 1932 and was validated for the period 1998 - 2015 by comparing the results of the model with the flows measured by the executive bodies of the Permanent Joint Technical Commission (PJTC). The model is characterized by flexibility that allows adapting to new changes in the Nile system.

Keywords


The River Nile; Sudan; PJTC; Transmission Losses; Recession Flow Forecasting; Nile inflows at main stations

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